As Bangladesh gears up for its 2026 national election, the spotlight is on the country's two major political parties, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami, and their ambitious promises for the future. With a focus on the economy, job creation, and industrial development, these parties aim to tackle some of Bangladesh's most pressing issues. But here's where it gets controversial: can they deliver on their grand plans, especially when it comes to financing and implementing these initiatives?
The Big Question: Can BNP and Jamaat Walk the Talk?
Both BNP and Jamaat have made bold pledges, emphasizing job creation, a business-friendly environment, and youth empowerment. However, economists and business leaders, while supportive in principle, raise valid concerns. They question the feasibility, implementation timeline, and financing of these plans. With Bangladesh's economy facing structural and short-term challenges, such as slowed GDP growth and high inflation, the need for a clear roadmap is more crucial than ever.
Economic Pressures and Missing Roadmaps
Bangladesh's economy has been under pressure, with GDP growth dropping to around 4-5%, well below pre-Covid levels. Meanwhile, food and overall inflation have remained high, squeezing people's purchasing power. Private investment has stagnated at around 23-24% of GDP, which is insufficient to support new industries and large-scale job creation. The official unemployment rate stands at around 4%, but joblessness among young, educated individuals is believed to be much higher, indicating a stressed labor market. Additionally, foreign debt repayments are increasing, putting a strain on development spending.
Financing the Initiatives: The Main Challenge
As BNP and Jamaat present their ambitious economic pledges, the main challenge lies in financing these initiatives. Economists note that the debate has shifted from the attractiveness of the promises to whether the economic conditions, institutions, and public finances can support them. Towfiqul Islam Khan, additional director (research) at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), highlights the need for clear explanations on financing, implementation timelines, and institutional capacity strengthening.
Job Creation: Ambitious Goals, Realistic Capacity?
BNP has pledged to create one crore jobs within 18 months of coming to power and introduce unemployment allowances for educated job seekers. Jamaat-e-Islami, on the other hand, has promised skills training for one crore young people over five years and job access for 50 lakh people. Economists point out that around 18 to 20 lakh young people enter Bangladesh's labor market annually. Creating one crore jobs would require sustained GDP growth of over 8-10% and a significant increase in domestic and foreign investment. A professor from the University of Dhaka's economics department emphasizes the need for clear plans to boost investment, industrialisation, and exports to make these job promises a reality.
Tax, Interest Rates, and Investment: A Delicate Balance
Jamaat-e-Islami has proposed permanent tax cuts, reducing corporate tax to 19% and value-added tax to 10%. BNP, while not specifying tax rates, has promised business-friendly reforms and deregulation. Business leaders support lower taxes but warn of potential budget deficits without alternative revenue sources, which could fuel inflation and debt. Kamran T Rahman, president of the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI), emphasizes the need for clarity on bank interest rates, managing the dollar crisis, and ensuring policy stability for investment to pick up.
Social Protection: Promises and Fiscal Limits
Both BNP and Jamaat have prioritized social protection, with BNP proposing unemployment allowances, cash support through family cards, and expanded safety net programs. Jamaat has pledged interest-free loans, direct cash transfers for vulnerable groups, and a welfare-oriented state model. Bangladesh currently spends about Tk1.16 lakh crore annually on social protection, roughly 2% of GDP, across various programs. Economists caution that increasing this allocation amid high inflation and revenue constraints will be challenging. BNP's proposal for family cards to four crore households would require significant funding, and sustainability depends on higher revenue and subsidy reform.
Industrialisation and Energy Constraints: A Realistic Approach
BNP has proposed establishing small and medium industries in every district and ensuring uninterrupted gas and electricity supply to industry. Jamaat-e-Islami has promised not to raise gas, electricity, and water prices for industry for three years. However, gas shortages, high power generation costs, and import dependence remain major challenges. Over the past five fiscal years, the government has provided substantial subsidies to the power and gas sectors, which could strain public finances further. Economists warn that without reform in the energy and industrial sectors, simply freezing prices will not be sustainable in the long run.
Agriculture: Rising Subsidy Pressure
Agriculture is vital to Bangladesh's economy and employment, and both parties have prioritized the sector. However, rising production costs, higher fertilizer prices, and irrigation expenses are putting pressure on farmers. To support the agriculture sector, the government has been increasing subsidies. In the current fiscal year's budget, a significant amount has been allocated for agriculture, fisheries, livestock, and food security. Economists caution that further increases in subsidies will put additional pressure on the national budget. Mashrur Riaz, chairman of Policy Exchange Bangladesh, believes that reducing middlemen's influence in agricultural markets and ensuring fair prices for farmers could help curb the need for subsidies.
ICT and Freelancing: Potential with Limits
Both parties recognize the potential of ICT and freelancing as future growth drivers. BNP has spoken of international payment gateways, while Jamaat has pledged 20 lakh ICT jobs and $5 billion in exports. Experts emphasize the need for major reforms in digital payments, data security, skills development, and access to global markets. Fahim Mashroor, CEO of Bdjobs and convenor of Voice for Reform, believes the targets are achievable with proper training, affordable technology products, and special incentives for advanced sectors.
As Bangladesh's political parties present their visions for the future, the challenge lies in translating these ambitious plans into reality. With a focus on job creation, social protection, and economic development, the country faces a delicate balance between promises and practical implementation. The upcoming election will be a test of the parties' ability to deliver on their pledges and address the pressing issues facing Bangladesh's economy and society.
