Can Tadej Pogačar Conquer the Unconquerable? The Paris-Roubaix Puzzle
Tadej Pogačar, the cycling prodigy, has dominated nearly every race he’s entered, but there’s one elusive prize that remains just out of reach: Paris-Roubaix. Dubbed the Hell of the North, this race is a brutal test of endurance, strategy, and sheer willpower. But here’s where it gets controversial: Can Pogačar, a climber extraordinaire, truly master the cobblestones and dethrone the reigning king, Mathieu Van der Poel? And this is the part most people miss: It’s not just about power—it’s about experience, luck, and a dash of unpredictability.
This article is part of a mini-series dissecting the five major titles missing from Pogačar’s already glittering résumé: Milan-San Remo, Paris-Roubaix, the Vuelta a España, an Olympic gold, and a record-tying fifth Tour de France victory. We’ve already explored his chances at Milan-San Remo, but Paris-Roubaix presents a different beast entirely. Unlike the Italian classic, where Pogačar has come tantalizingly close (third place in the last two editions), his history with Roubaix is brief but intense.
A Debut to Remember
In 2025, Pogačar made his much-anticipated debut at Paris-Roubaix, a race his team had long urged him to avoid due to its treacherous cobbles and crash risks. The tension between his desire to compete and his team’s caution was palpable. After a limited spring campaign, which included only the Tour of Flanders, he lined up in Compiègne, ready to tackle the infamous cobblestones. Despite his inexperience, he was a favorite—a testament to his unparalleled talent.
During the race, Pogačar showcased his signature aggression, launching attacks and setting Strava records on key sectors. He even found himself in a breakaway with Van der Poel and Jasper Philipsen, a trio that seemed destined for the finish. But fate had other plans. A crash 40km from the line dashed his hopes, leaving him to settle for second place, 1:18 behind Van der Poel. Still, it was a remarkable debut, with Pogačar later calling it the hardest race of his life.
The Van der Poel Conundrum
Here’s the rub: Beating Van der Poel at Paris-Roubaix isn’t just about being strong—it’s about being stronger than a three-time winner who thrives on the cobbles. Van der Poel’s margins of victory (46 seconds, three minutes, and 1:18) are no fluke. He’s a powerhouse, and his race IQ is unmatched. Pogačar, lighter and more of a climber, struggles to match Van der Poel’s raw power on the flats. So, how can he win?
Strategy or Serendipity?
Pogačar’s 2025 performance hinted at a path forward. He was with Van der Poel deep into the race, proving he can hang with the best. But to win, he’ll need to refine his approach. Fewer early attacks? Better corner navigation? A stroke of luck with punctures or crashes? It’s a delicate balance, and one that may rely as much on circumstance as on skill.
The Bigger Picture
Paris-Roubaix and Milan-San Remo are the final frontiers for Pogačar, the two Monuments that have so far eluded him. He’s stood on their podiums, but the top step remains a challenge. Will he return to Roubaix in 2026? And if so, can he crack the code?
What do you think? Can Pogačar conquer Paris-Roubaix, or will it remain the one that got away? Share your thoughts in the comments—let’s spark a debate!
