The Formula 1 championship battle is teetering on the brink, with Max Verstappen potentially surrendering his title to Lando Norris – but let's dive deeper into whether it's truly slipping away!
Helmut Marko, the ever-optimistic Red Bull advisor, has pinpointed the exact moment when things began to unravel for Verstappen, should the title indeed be lost to the young McLaren star. As things stand, Verstappen is on the cusp of defeat unless something unexpected befalls Norris in the remaining races. Marko attributes this potential downfall to a rough patch that kicked off right after the Imola Grand Prix, where Red Bull simply couldn't get their act together for several races.
Despite still holding the reigning World Champion title and a slim chance to secure a fifth consecutive Drivers' Championship, Verstappen faced major setbacks in Mexico and Brazil, dropping crucial points that propelled Norris into the lead. This double whammy has shifted the momentum decisively.
Marko remains upbeat: If the championship ends up eluding them...
In Mexico City, Verstappen (https://www.planetf1.com/driver/max-verstappen) secured only fifth place in qualifying, trailing pole-sitter Norris by a full half-second. Yet, he fought back brilliantly to claim third on the podium. He reflected afterward, noting that this outcome demonstrated Red Bull's lack of speed in every situation, a lesson they need to grasp more clearly.
But here's where it gets controversial... Just two weeks later in Brazil, Red Bull's struggles persisted. Verstappen followed his fourth-place finish in the Sprint with a disappointing exit in Q1 during qualifying for the main Grand Prix. He openly admitted that the team was baffled by their poor performance, calling it 'bad' without a clear understanding of why.
Overnight, the team scrambled with setup adjustments and even swapped in a new engine for Verstappen's RB21. Starting from the pit lane, he delivered one of his standout drives of the season, climbing back to the podium. Still, it wasn't sufficient to halt the widening gap.
Norris dominated by winning both the Sprint and the Grand Prix, amassing 13 points more than Verstappen. Combined with the 10 points from Mexico, this left Verstappen trailing by a hefty 49 points.
Marko, Red Bull's motorsport advisor, bluntly states that without a DNF (Did Not Finish) for Norris, whether from retirement, collision, or another mishap, Verstappen stands 'no chance' of retaining the title. In his Speedweek (https://www.speedweek.com/formel1/news/243420/Dr-Helmut-Marko-Gesamtsituation-ist-positiv.html) column, he explained: 'With 49 points behind Norris and just three Grands Prix plus one Sprint left, something drastic needs to happen to Lando to keep Max in contention – otherwise, it's over, like if Lando retires or there's a crash.'
He added, 'We're not thrilled about the gap, but the silver lining is how we've bounced back so dramatically this season, suddenly re-entering the championship fight. So, overall, the situation looks positive.'
And this is the part most people miss... Marko doesn't blame their pace in Mexico or Interlagos directly; instead, he points to the slump post-Imola, where Verstappen managed only one podium across seven races. 'If we end up losing the title, it traces back to that stretch after Imola, when hardly anything clicked for about six races,' he noted.
Yet, hope flickers for Red Bull fans. Marko suggests that a strong showing in Las Vegas could reignite Verstappen's hopes, even if Qatar and Abu Dhabi might play to McLaren's MCL39 strengths. 'Predicting the power balance on these final circuits isn't straightforward anymore,' he said. 'In modern F1, tracks don't favor specific cars like they used to. For teams like Ferrari and Mercedes, it's about their performance on the day. If we nail our setup, we could match McLaren's level.'
'That said, Las Vegas, with its high-speed sections, should suit us better, while Qatar and Abu Dhabi's medium-speed corners might favor McLaren – but these predictions aren't as reliable as in the past.'
F1 2025: Essential Updates
👉F1 Calendar: What's next on the schedule, and where's the upcoming race? (https://www.planetf1.com/news/f1-schedule-next-race-calendar)
👉F1 2025 Championship Standings (https://www.planetf1.com/results)
So, is the title truly out of reach for Max Verstappen?
What a reversal from last year! Back then, it was Verstappen delivering the knockout punch to Norris's title ambitions at the Brazilian Grand Prix, wrapping up the championship the very next race in Las Vegas.
This season, roles are reversed.
Norris outperformed Verstappen by 33 points to 20 at Interlagos, expanding his lead to 49 points with 83 points still available. Of those, 25 will be decided in Las Vegas.
For beginners wondering how F1 points work, here's a quick breakdown: Races award points to the top 10 finishers, with the winner getting 25, second 18, and so on down to tenth with 1. Sprints, like the one in Brazil, offer points for the top eight, with 8 for first place.
If Norris grabs the full 25 in Vegas (a win plus the Sprint), Verstappen must finish at least second to keep his hopes alive, but even then, he'd have just a 2-point buffer. Third place for Verstappen would end his chances outright.
If Norris settles for second, Verstappen needs a P5 or better to stay in the mix, clinging by a single point. Should Norris finish third, Verstappen requires at least sixth – otherwise, they'd be tied, and seventh place would eliminate him because, even with wins in the last two races, a countback (comparing wins, then second places) would favor Norris based on his superior second-place finishes.
Of course, the biggest boost for Verstappen would be if Norris fails to score and he takes the victory himself, cutting the deficit to 24 points and setting up an exciting showdown in Qatar, where another 33 points are on offer.
But if Verstappen falters and scores nothing, Norris only needs fifth place to extinguish the reigning champion's dreams of a fifth title. Still, don't count out Verstappen yet – F1 has seen wild comebacks before!
This situation begs the question: Is Red Bull's post-Imola slump a sign of deeper issues, like team fatigue or McLaren's superior adaptation to 2024 regulations? Or could it just be a blip that Verstappen, with his incredible talent and comeback potential, can overcome? What do you think – will Norris claim the crown, or can Verstappen pull off another miracle? Share your opinions in the comments below!
Read next: Did Lewis Hamilton cause Max Verstappen's puncture at the Brazil GP? (https://www.planetf1.com/news/lewis-hamilton-franco-colapinto-crash-max-verstappen-puncture-brazil-interagos)
