Pakistan's Urban Reality: Unveiling the Truth Behind the Numbers
A surprising revelation! A recent World Bank study has uncovered a significant discrepancy in Pakistan's urban population statistics, challenging our understanding of the country's urbanization.
The study, titled "When Does a Village Become a Town?", employs satellite data and a unique methodology called the Degree of Urbanisation (DoU). It reveals that Pakistan's true urbanization level is a staggering 88%, a far cry from the official estimate of 39%.
But here's where it gets controversial: Pakistan's reliance on administrative boundaries, rather than population density and settlement patterns, has led to this massive discrepancy.
According to the DoU classification, 88% of Pakistan's population resides in areas with urban characteristics. This includes 46% in high-density cities and approximately 42% in moderately dense urban centers. These figures are a stark contrast to the official data, which only accounts for the largest cities.
The findings highlight the crucial role of secondary cities and peri-urban areas in Pakistan's urban expansion. These areas, often overlooked in official classifications, are the real drivers of recent urban growth. This discrepancy has significant implications for fiscal planning and the delivery of public services.
Misclassification of urban areas leads to reduced property tax revenues and hampers the provision of essential services. It also distorts socioeconomic indicators, making it challenging to address urban-rural disparities effectively. The World Bank's research paper emphasizes the need for a more accurate and evidence-based approach to urban classification.
Interestingly, Pakistan's official urban classification hasn't reflected ground realities since 1972. Before that, urban classification was based on objective indicators. However, the shift to provincial and municipal committees in 1972 removed the obligation to consider population concentration and objective metrics.
The study's key insight is that when considering population density and concentration, Pakistan's urban population rises from 39% to a remarkable 88%. This highlights the urban character of growing peri-urban areas, which now accommodate nearly half the population.
Furthermore, the study challenges the notion that Pakistan's urban expansion is solely driven by the development of megacities like Lahore and Karachi. While these cities are significant indicators of urbanization, a large portion of urban population growth occurs in smaller, intermediate urban centers.
The Degree of Urbanisation method, utilizing satellite data, provides a more accurate and globally comparable view of urbanization, transcending administrative boundaries.
The divergence between official classification and DoU persists across all provinces. For instance, Islamabad's official urban population is 47%, while DoU estimates it at 90%. Balochistan, Punjab, and Sindh show closer alignment, but Khyber Pakhtunkhwa's urban population is nearly three times the official estimate.
The report concludes that Pakistan's urban landscape has undergone a dramatic transformation over the past two decades. A growing rural population has shifted away from agriculture, giving rise to new, vibrant urban centers. This trend is a testament to the country's evolving urbanization story.
What are your thoughts on this urban revelation? Do you think a shift in urban classification is necessary for effective policy-making? Share your insights in the comments below!
