Sal Frelick's struggles this season have been a topic of much discussion and speculation. While his offensive woes are concerning, the real alarm bells are ringing over his defensive performance. This article delves into Frelick's challenges, offering a comprehensive analysis and personal commentary on his situation. From the perspective of a sports analyst, I explore the factors contributing to Frelick's decline and the potential implications for the Milwaukee Brewers.
The Offense: A Tale of Two Seasons
Frelick's offensive struggles are evident when comparing his 2026 and 2025 seasons. His Statcast metrics paint a picture of a hitter who has lost his touch. Exit velocities, barrel percentage, and hard-hit percentage are all down, placing him in the bottom 10% of the league. However, what's intriguing is that these issues were present last season as well. Frelick's ability to avoid strikeouts and maximize square-up percentage is still intact, but his ground ball rate has increased significantly. This shift has led to a lower BABIP and a decline in his overall performance.
The key to Frelick's struggles lies in his batted ball data. While he's making slightly less weak contact and getting under the ball more often, the biggest problem is his 'topped' balls. These are the ones that go directly into the ground, and Frelick is hitting them at an alarming rate. This issue is reflected in his launch angle, which has decreased significantly, and his ground ball percentage, which has increased. Frelick's low exit velocity and barrel percentage leave him with little wiggle room, and his grounders are less likely to sneak through the infield.
The Defense: A Declining Performance
Frelick's defensive decline is even more concerning. His range and arm strength have both suffered, placing him in the 48th percentile in range and the 9th percentile in arm value. This is a significant drop from his 85th percentile in 2025 and 79th percentile in 2024. The speculation is that Frelick is playing hurt, but this doesn't fully explain the decline in his defensive metrics. His sprint speed remains intact, but his overall defensive value has taken a hit.
The Case for Patience
Despite the concerns, I believe Frelick deserves some patience. At 26 years old, he has two years of solid major-league experience under his belt, and he was a 3.6 fWAR player last season. Frelick is a hard worker and a great teammate, and he has shown signs of improvement in June. While his xwOBA is only slightly higher than his season total, his wOBA is outperforming it by 55 points.
The Future of Frelick
The question remains: is Frelick injured, and if so, should he stop playing through it? If he is injured, he should go on the injured list and let Lara have a chance. However, Lara is no sure thing, and there's no guarantee he would outperform Frelick's 71 OPS+ this season. The Brewers should give Frelick the chance to turn things around, as he has earned it. Frelick is a bigger part of Milwaukee's past and can still be a part of their future.
In conclusion, Sal Frelick's struggles this season are multifaceted. While his offense has declined, his defense has taken a significant hit. However, with patience and the right adjustments, Frelick can turn things around. The Brewers should give him the chance to prove himself, as he has earned the opportunity to contribute to the team's success.
