Here’s a shocking truth: the US labor market is showing signs of weakness, and it’s sending ripples through global markets. But here’s where it gets controversial—while some see this as a clear signal for Federal Reserve rate cuts, others argue the data might be more nuanced than it appears. Let’s dive in.
On November 12, 2025, Treasuries rallied across the board as private-sector data hinted at a cooling US job market, fueling bets on a potential Fed rate cut. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped four basis points to 4.08%, reacting to ADP Research’s employment figures, which revealed a slowdown in hiring during the second half of October. Money markets now price in a roughly 70% chance of a rate cut next month. Meanwhile, the US dollar paused its five-day losing streak, and gold prices inched higher.
And this is the part most people miss—the ongoing US government shutdown has left investors scrambling for private data to gauge economic health. With official indicators on hold, markets are leaning heavily on reports like ADP’s, which showed a modest 42,000 increase in private-sector payrolls in October after two months of decline. However, this comes amid a wave of corporate layoffs, with Challenger, Gray & Christmas reporting the highest October job cuts in over two decades. So, is the labor market truly weakening, or is this just a temporary blip?
Asian markets rallied alongside US equity-index futures, with Japan’s Topix Index seeing advancers outpace decliners by a 7-to-1 ratio. However, tech stocks lagged, notably SoftBank Corp., which plunged 5% after selling its stake in Nvidia Corp. The government shutdown, now on track to end as early as Wednesday thanks to a Senate-passed funding measure, has heightened the stakes for delayed economic data. Once agencies reopen, investors expect a flood of updates that could reshape market sentiment.
“As government functions resume, we’ll gain a clearer picture of the economy, which is critical for assessing its underlying strength,” said Rajeev De Mello of Gama Asset Management. But here’s the kicker: while most economists predict a quarter-point Fed rate cut in December, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has cautioned that such a move isn’t guaranteed. This ambiguity leaves markets in a state of cautious optimism.
Here’s a thought-provoking question for you: With mixed signals from private data and corporate layoffs, is the Fed’s path as clear as markets seem to think? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
In corporate news, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) projected robust sales growth over the next five years, driven by demand for its data center products. FedEx eased investor worries with an upbeat profit forecast for the quarter, while Macquarie Group-led investors are set to acquire Potters Industries for $1.1 billion. Meanwhile, JD.com reported a 60% surge in Singles’ Day orders, though Sea Ltd. missed profit estimates amid fierce Southeast Asian e-commerce competition.
Market snapshots as of 10:48 a.m. Tokyo time:
- Stocks: S&P 500 futures +0.2%, Japan’s Topix +1%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 +0.2%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng +0.5%.
- Currencies: The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was flat, with the euro at $1.1579 and the yen slipping 0.1% to 154.32 per dollar.
- Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin +0.6% to $103,236.95, Ether +0.9% to $3,445.97.
- Bonds: 10-year Treasury yield -4 basis points to 4.08%, Japan’s 10-year yield unchanged at 1.685%.
- Commodities: WTI crude -0.2% to $60.91/barrel, spot gold +0.2% to $4,133.80/ounce.
As markets navigate this uncertain terrain, one thing is clear: the coming weeks will be pivotal. What’s your take on the Fed’s next move? Let us know in the comments!
